Playoff Football is one of the best things to bet on and there are a lot of ways to make some money this Sunday for the AFC Championship game.This game involves teams that we constantly see play each other and with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line we will see who really wants it. Good players win, Great players cover their overs!
From player props, to money lines, to over/unders the Fan-Yaks always have the locks. Comment what picks that you would put the whole herd on that I missed.
Here are the top three bets to take from the AFC Championship game:
(All Odds are from Hard Rock Bet on 1/22/25)
Bills @ Chiefs
Tru-Yak Pick #1: Over 47.5, -110
Since 2020 the Bills and Chiefs have played 8 times with 3 of those times being in the playoffs. The games have gone over that score 5 of the 8 games with all 3 playoff games reaching the over. In those 8 games there is an average of 53 points per game, and the playoff games have an average of 63.7 points per game.
With Josh Allen playing the most elite football he has in his whole career and the Bills offense being one of the best in the league they will surely continue their high scoring trend of averaging 26.6 points per game against the Chiefs over their last 8 games.
A lot of people thought that the Bills offense would fall off after they lost Stefon Diggs, but with Allen being able to move the ball where he wants and not having to get a guy 10 targets a game he has looked a lot more smooth and comfortable. All of the Bills weapons have played well when needed and the ball is spread around to where everyone does their part.
Players like Khalil Shakir, Dalton Kincaid and even rookie Keon Coleman have all stepped up and have been reliable targets for Allen to throw to. Allen has 17 passing touchdowns and 5 rushing touchdowns in his career vs the Chiefs. Allen is making plays with his legs & arm and he is also rarely turning the ball over-but hey-if he does turn it over, turnovers lead to points and we like points.
The Bills offensively play well against the Chiefs, but defensively they struggle sometimes which is perfect for the over. The weakest part of the Bills offense is their secondary, but luckily they’re not playing the greatest quarterback of all time (Tru-Yak is a Brady Fan-Yak). Unfortunately they are playing the second greatest (or soon to be second greatest if you’re not there with him yet) quarterback of all time.
The Chiefs air raid offense is going to give the Bills secondary trouble as it always does in the playoffs. The Chiefs average 35.7 points per game in the playoffs vs the Bills. The Chiefs do not have a true number one receiver, especially with Rice out for the year, but they have a lot of really good ball players and one of the greatest quarterbacks and greatest coaches ever.
They also have their number one option who is not a receiver, Travis Kelce, who is coming off of an electric playoff game and is known to always show up in the playoffs. Kelce started the year slow, but picked up his play over the year and is playing his best ball at the perfect time. They also have rookie Xavier Worthy, who had a very underrated rookie year, and Deandre Hopkins who can go for 150 yards at any moment.
The end of this game being in the 40’s feels illegal-so then-they are going to have to haul me to Fan-Yak prison because I will be taking this on Sunday.
<The over for the Bills team total is 21.5 at -130, the Chiefs is 23.5 at -130. These are also good picks if you favor a team or think it might be a blow out. Just wanted to throw that in there>
Tru-Yak Pick #2: Josh Allen over 228.5 Passing yards, -115
Josh Allen averaged 252.2 yards per game against the Chiefs in the regular season and 267.3 yards per game against the Chiefs in the playoffs. He also averages 260.2 yards per game in the postseason. He always comes to play when it is against Mahomes and his MVP caliber season shows that he is going to put up a fight in the AFC championship.
Allen has only got this number twice over his last five games and he only threw for 127 yards against the Ravens last Sunday, but that should not scare you away from taking this pick. The best players always come to play in the biggest moments, Josh Allen has proved and earned the right to be considered one of those players.
The Bills run game tends to struggle against the Chiefs which ends up in Josh Allen having to throw a lot of passes and throw for a lot of yards. He throws 38.2 pass attempts per game against the Chiefs in his career.
Josh Allen has also been making a lot of plays with his legs and when he played the Chiefs in the regular season he had 55 rush yards against them. This means that the Chiefs are probably emphasizing to the defense to not let Allen run. This could mean they possibly drop pass rushers to be spies or set contains which will allow Allen more time to throw.
Allen also has lots of weapons to throw at it too. The offense is so spread out that there is nowhere for the defense to focus on or anyone to double team. Khalil Shakir, Amari Cooper, and Keon Coleman are all great receiving threats, and James Cook can even be a receiving threat out of the backfield sometimes. He had 5 receptions in their matchup this year with the Chiefs.
Josh is going to put on another MVP performance whether he wins or he loses this game. Take Allen to leave it all on the field and go over on his passing yards.
<Also Hard Rock does not have the odds, if you bet on an app that has combined quarterback passing and rushing yards, that could be a good bet as well. I Imagine the line will be around 250-260 yards and he could still get that with just his arm if it has better odds>
Tru-Yak Pick #3: Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown
In the three playoff games the Bills and Chiefs have faced each other in over that last 5 years, Travis Kelce has scored 5 touchdowns in those three games, and he has also scored 3 touchdowns in the 5 regular season games they have played in that time span. Kelce has 20 receiving touchdowns in his 23 playoff games, and he has 4 touchdowns in his last 5 playoff games.
Kelce only had 3 receiving touchdowns this year, but that just means he’s more eager to get some in the postseason. Kelce is a known playoff stud who has a knack for finding the end zone in the biggest games. The Bills defense is going to have a tough time trying to stop him from scoring.
The Bills play primarily zone defense which is perfect for Kelce’s style of play. He is an expert at finding the soft spots in the zones, and is able to pick them apart. He also has an elite connection with Mahomes and he is able to make off script plays and find open space when Mahomes gets out of the pocket.
The Bills gave up 4 receiving touchdowns from tight ends in the regular season, two of them to Noah Gray Kelce’s teammate, and they let Isaiah likely score one last week. They also allowed three tight ends to eclipse 50 yards and they let 6 tight ends have 4 or more catches.
The Bills safeties and linebackers have trouble against tight ends and it gives Kelce the opportunity to go out there and cause some trouble for the Bills. When Mahomes gets close to the end zone he is going to look for his most trusted guys to seal the deal and we all know the first place he is looking.
Kelce continues to grow his legacy as one of the greatest tight ends ever, and he will further it more when he scores a touchdown on Sunday. Get ready to see Travis Kelce hit the stanky leg and hopefully Jason Kelce shirtless drinking a beer in the stands.
ONWARD!
TRU-YAK
