The college basketball regular season is a little more than halfway done and finishing the season strong is going to be a necessity for teams that are trying to secure their spot in one of the most exciting events in sports. Selection Sunday is less than two months away, and every college team is going to want to hear their name called.
Teams like Auburn, Duke, and Alabama are almost guaranteed to make the dance and they are going to be some of the top seeds. Those are the teams that we expect to make it, ironically the most fun college basketball fans have, is rooting for the teams that we don’t expect to make.
Everyone loves the underdog story and every year there are a few that go on a run. We have seen teams like Oakland, Saint Peters and Fairleigh Dickenson all gain extensive temporary fan bases in some of the recent tournaments.
When it becomes bracket time fans all sit down and pick what team is going to be the Cinderella story this year. The 10-12 seeds all have over a 35% chance of advancing past the first round. All the schools that are on the cusp of making the tournament all want a chance to be the team that America falls in love with-
Figuring out what teams it will be this year may be impossible but my TRU-YAK senses are going off about a few teams that could sneak into the tournament and possibly even go on a run.
This list is based off of any team that is not in ESPN’s projected bracket. Here is the link for reference:
#1: Wake Forest
Wake Forest is projected to be in the “Next Four Out” which is the four teams after the “First Four Out”. For those who don’t know, the first four out are the 4 teams that are projected to just miss the tournament, but were in consideration.
The next four are the four teams after that would have made it.
Wake forest is currently 15-5, which is better than some teams that are ranked in the top 25, but somehow 4th in their conference, Wake Forest being in the stacked ACC causes them to not get as much media and buzz because their great play is regular for their conference.
Wake Forest beats good teams, they don’t lose to teams they shouldn’t and they can compete with anyone. 7 of their 15 wins have come against teams that are .500 and better, and 2 of their wins are against teams in the projected March Madness bracket.
Of their 5 losses, 4 where to ranked Florida, Texas A&M, Duke, and Clemson (were ranked at the time), and the other was to Xavier who is also in the next four out and are a solid ball team. Those are tough losses and they beat teams like Michigan, UNC, and Stanford.
Wake Forest is led by their crafty star guard Hunter Sallis who averaged 18.9 points per game, 4.6 rebounds, and 1.3 steals per game. The 6’5 senior is extremely aggressive and knows how to get to his spots and finish at the rim. Sallis does a great job of using his body and change of speed to get good looks in the mid range and at the basket. Although his long ball is inconsistent, he has shown flashes and had games where he’s shown he can shoot from deep.
Sallis is a great leader, he gets a lot of help around him, especially from Wake’s other senior guard Cameron Hildreth. All around guard Hildreth has a very Shaun Livingston-esque game that has been a huge help for the Demon Deacons. Hildreth is an elite mid range shooter with a nice floater and touch around the rim who also leads the team in assists and rebounds.
This duo needs to come up big for the last stretch of the season on both sides of the floor. They need to continue their offensive excellence as well as leading Wake Forest, who is top 50 in the nation in points allowed and field goal percentage allowed, on the defensive end.
The Deacons just played a great game against Duke where they lost by 7 but put up a great fight and they were actually winning for a good portion of the game. On the day this article comes out they will have a matchup against ranked Louisville and for their remaining 11 games, 7 of the teams they will play have winning records and two are ranked including today’s game and playing Duke again.
If Wake Forest can win around 6-7 of their final 11 games, beat a few good teams and be competitive in the games they do lose then they should have a real shot at making it. The 16 seeds last year had an average of 20 wins and due to the tough end to their schedule that is all it should really take for them to make.
The Demon Deacons hopefully have some of their black magic saved up and they can use it to make a late season tournament push. Let’s see if Tim Duncan, Jeff Teague and Chris Paul have a reason to watch college basketball in March.
#2: North Texas
North Texas is having a surprisingly amazing season after having a decent one last year. The Mean Green are 15-4 and they current stand at #1 in the American Conference. The Mean Green’s stellar season has been led by 3 level scoring senior guard who transferred from Drake Atin Wright and two-way junior forward Brenen Lorient.
North Texas is a team that can shoot threes, bang down low and finish at the rim, but the biggest reason for North Texas’ success this year is their hounding defense that leaves opponents feeling like they are dribbling in a porta-potty. North Texas this year ranks 3rd amongst all of D1 basketball in opponent total points and they are 4th in points allowed per game.
They have 5 players who average over a steal a game including Latrell Jossell who leads the team with 1.5 and they have two players that average at least 1 block per game. Only 7 teams have scored 65 points or more in North Texas, and they do it all without fouling-they are 30th in the nation in fouls per game.
Their tenacious defense is special to watch, that does not take away from the fact that this team can score too. Their offensive production is not anywhere near their defensive production but they have been able to make big shots when they need them.
One part of the team that helps is their efficiency. North Texas takes good open shots, they move the ball well and they are able to be aggressive. This has led them to be top 50 in the nation in both 3 point percentage and free throw percentage.
For players that have attempted at least 30 three pointers this season, they have 5 players who shoot over 31% from three and they are led by Atin Wright who shoots 42.3% from three on 6.5 attempts per game. They also have Brenen Lorient who is 7-10 this season from deep.
Of their 8 players who play over 19 minutes per game, 7 of them shoot over 70% from the free throw line and they have 2 players that shot over 80%. They are a very unselfish team and they have a lot of guys that are able to give them quality minutes.
That is what makes them such a tough guard, they move the ball and everyone on the team is capable of scoring. They have 6 players that average over 7 points per game, which in college is actually really good, and they rank 20th in the nation in bench scoring.
The only knock against North Texas is their strength of schedule. You can only play who is your schedule and they have done a really good job of handling those teams but they have only played one ranked opponent in which they lost 68-64 to Memphis.
I still think that they should get a shot at the tournament regardless of their schedule, they still have beaten a lot of good teams, teams with winning records, they are winning their conference and they were actually beating Memphis for a good portion of the game and gave them a really tough fight
If they can continue their dominance, win a majority of their remaining games and win their conference I see no reason why they should not get a bid. Memphis is projected to be in and they are on the same level as Memphis. Let’s hope North Texas can get a little mean and green to finish their season.
#3: Dayton Flyers
The Dayton Flyers were the 7 seed in last year’s March Madness tournament who got eliminated in the second round. They have followed that up with another really strong season, but a recent losing streak has them on the outside looking in for this year’s March Madness.
The Flyers started the year out hot, they won 10 of their 12 first games, 11 of their first 14. After that they went on a 3 game losing streak to in conference opponents due to a very poor shooting slump from the Flyers and a shooting Masterclass from George Mason. However since then they have won three straight against formidable opponents, hopefully has their confidence up to finish out the season strong.
In terms of schedule Dayton has played it all, ranked teams, good teams, bad teams and even a team called Capital Crusaders which I’m pretty sure I played against in rec basketball back in JV. The Flyers currently stand at 14-6 which is 4th in their conference, but they have put together a nice March Madness resume.
In terms of winning they beat UConn when they were ranked 2nd, Marquette when they were ranked 6th, and 8 of their 14 wins are against programs with winning records. They are able to be so successful because of their ability to move the ball, find the open man and play team basketball.
The Flyers are top 50 in the nation in assists per game and assist to turnover ratio and they have elite playmaker Malachi Smith who is 22nd in the nation in assists per game averaging 6 assists per game.
He is electric in the pick & roll and he, Smith and the rest of the Flyers do a great job of making sure to play selflessly, play fast paced basketball and move off the ball. This allows for the team to have 4 players that average over 10 points per game, a player that averages 9.9 and two more players that average over 6. The Flyers have a lot of guys who know how to score, but there are few that other teams really have to watch out for-
The number one guy you have to guard is 6 ‘7 senior forward Nate Santos who averages 14.6 points per game and 5.3 rebounds per game 44.8% shooting from the field and 43.3% from three. Santos is an elite scorer with a pure stroke that can shoot from everywhere. His ability to catch and shoot and spot up from three regardless of contest is elite-along with his mid range and floater.
Aside from Santos they have two-way guard Enoch Cheeks that averages 13.1 points per game, a team high 6.5 rebounds per game and a team high 2 steals per game on 49.7% shooting from the field and 41.6% from three and Jevon Bennet who averages 9.9 points per game on 40.2% from three-
The Flyers have a lot of guys that can shoot the three and high basketball IQ which are two of the most important traits players can have in today’s game. This has led them to a lot of success but their defense is what holds them back.
Of the 6 games they lost, 3 were to ranked teams and they were all within 10 points, the other 3 were their recent in conference losing streak. In those games they allowed 78.7 points per game. They will need to tighten up defensively in order to make a push for the tournament but three close ranked losses and a few tough conference games should not be enough to keep them out of the dance.
As long as Dayton can close out their season on a win streak they should be able to move from next four out to first four in. This is easier said than done as 8 of their final 11 games are against teams with winning records, but Dayton has the talent and players to win all of those games. Flyers need to fly above the competition and land themselves a spot in this year’s March Madness tournament.
#4: South Alabama
South Alabama is currently 14-7 and tied for second in their conference. They are looking for their 9th appearance in March Madness, and their first appearance since 2008. South Alabama is one of the best defensive teams in the country and are trying to use that to steal a spot in the tournament.
South Alabama currently ranks 12th in points allowed per game, they are tied for 14th in steals and they are top 50 in turnovers forced. South Alabama has an insane 4 players that average over a steal per game and two that average 1.8.
This defense has also proven itself against real competition as well.
They held 23rd ranked Ole Miss to just 64 points and other good offenses like TCU and James Madison to under 63 points. The Jaguars quick hands, high defensive IQ, and fast reactions makes them very disruptive for other offenses and it is also helping them out on the offense as well.
These turnovers are leading to points as the Jaguars are top 40 in the country in fast break points at 14.24 fb points per game. These are essential points for a subpar offense that helps them win close games. If they can pick it up offensively to end the season then they will be in a great position to earn one of those last spots in the tournament.
The Jaguars are led by none other than Jessup transfer Myles Corey who is averaging 14.8 points per game, 4.3 assists, and 1.4 steals per game. The 6’0 transfer is a hyper athletic guard that has crazy bounce, elite handles and elite passing skills. He has done a great job running the offense being the team’s leading scorer and leading in assists as well.
The only problem for Corey has been his hot and cold three point shot, which has been an all around problem for the Jags. South Alabama has some players that can really shoot, but then they also have some players, that really cannot-For The 8 players that attempt at least 1 three per game they have 4 of them who shoot over 39% from three and 3 of them who shoot less than 30% from three.
Their shooting struggles sometimes shoot them out of game no matter how poised they are defensively. In all of their losses they shot less than 30% from three except for one game where they shot 32.1% from three. If they can hit a bit of a hot streak down the stretch offensively then they will be one of the best teams in the country to finish the year.
Although their schedule is a weaker one that only involved one game against a ranked opponent in the close loss to Ole Miss, they have beaten some quality teams. They have beaten James Madison, Troy, Jacksonville St, and Arkansas St who are slated to be in the tournament as of now.
The Jaguars have the ability to win out the rest of their schedule, including a rematch of Arkansas St who they already beat, leads their conference and is supposed to make the tournament, so that game could end up being for the conference if the season plays out how they want it to.
If they can win that game and finish strong they have a chance to win their conference and get that automatic bid to the dance. Once they make it to the tournament, who knows how far their elite defense can take them…
ONWARD!
TRU-YAK
