The NFC Championship game has the young and surprising Commanders facing the star studded Philadelphia Eagles. The Commanders have been on an electric run but do they have the talent to match up with the Eagles? Either way there are some overs and some unders that are going to hit regardless. Grab the beers and the pans, it’s time to cook-Let’s see what legs you should throw in your parlay!
(All Odds are from Hard Rock Bet on 1/22/25)
Commanders @ Eagles
Tru-Yak Pick #1: 1st Half Under 25.5, -150
These two teams see each other often and they know each other’s offenses inside and out. Divisional matchups in general and especially in the playoffs tend to be low scoring. I think this game is going to end up decently high scoring but the first half will most likely be a punt battle between the two where the Eagles try to establish the run and the Commanders try to get Daniels in rhythm.
Both teams are also teams that like to win the time of possession battle and drain the clock, this will lead to a quick first half with minimum time for scoring. Jalen Hurts will most likely struggle this game, or at least at the start, and it will take Daniels awhile to adjust to the playoff crowd in Philly.
This season in their two games they hit the first half under in their first matchup and they did not in the second matchup. In their second matchup where it did not hit, there were multiple early turnovers that set up both teams in scoring position. Those mistakes will not be made again and in a playoff environment there is no way the first half goes over.
In the playoffs this year the Commanders are also 1-1 in the first half, but the one that did not hit was against the Lions, which is understandable as they are the best offense in football. The only other divisional matchup this playoffs of the Steelers and the Ravens did hit the first half under.
The first half is the play of the game and every Fan-Yak should put that in their parlay this weekend.
Tru-Yak Pick #2: Austin Ekeler over 44.5 rushing + receiving yards
With the young Commanders going into Philly led by their rookie quarterback, they may look to a veteran like Austin Ekeler to help them try to punch their ticket to the Super Bowl. Brian Robinson, who has struggled against the Eagles and has been very up and down this year, has seen a slight reduction in usage this playoffs as well.
Ekeler has covered this line in both playoff games so far and in the one game he played against the Eagles in the regular season, he went over this mark as well. Ekeler is an absolute weapon for the Commanders because he is a receiving back and Daniels loves finding him in the short game.
The back, although a little older and banged up has seemed to pick up right where he left off before his injury. He is a perfect matchup for the Eagles. The Eagles who have mostly run stuffing linebackers, not coverage guys, hate trying to tackle Ekeler when he catches checkdowns and short routes.
Daniels is definitely going to rely on Ekeler a ton, especially to start the game out when he is establishing a rhythm, he will dump it off to Ekeler a few times to keep the chains moving and the defense honest.
Ekeler should see a lot of production in this game and will hit his over rushing and receiving yards.
Tru-Yak Pick #3: Jake Elliot Over 1.5 Field Goals, +105
Jake Elliot who has struggled at extra points has been a really efficient kicker this year, especially inside 50 yards. Elliot has made at least two field goals in both playoff games this year, in his last 6 games and in both matchups against the Commanders.
The Eagles offense, which is loaded, is very good and will be able to move the ball well against the Commanders. The only problem is they have a bit of trouble getting in the end zone when they are not close enough to “tush push”. Elliot has gotten a lot of chip shot attempts when the Eagles drive down and cannot finish the job.
Elliot has also never missed a field goal in the playoffs and he has made at least two field goals in 6 of his 12 career playoff games. Since the Eagles are going up against an opponent that knows them quite well it is going to be hard for them to get complete scoring drives, this will leave plenty of opportunity for Elliot to kick.
The forecast said it is going to be cold and cloudy, but nothing that should affect the ball being kicked. Elliot only has missed this mark in 6 of the 19 games he has played this year. As long as the Eagles do not turn the ball over in opponent territory then this should be an easy hit for Elliot.
Elliot is going to make a lot of people money on Sunday and now there will be something on all 3 phases of the ball for you to root for!
ONWARD!
TRU-YAK
